Investment in biologics based medicine is gaining momentum as these drugs offer targeted therapy and often safer treatment options, higher returns on investment and slower erosion of market share post patent expiry compared to small molecule based drugs. First Generation Monoclonal antibody based drugs are the cornerstone of treatment of major diseases (RA, MS, cancers, AMD, etc). As the patents for these 1st generation Mabs are set to expire from 2014 onwards we focus on companies with novel technology platforms…

Proposals on healthcare reforms, discussed at a high level meeting (DPJ’s Chairman with officials of MHLW (Korosho) & Ministry of Finance) in Japan last week, suggest a severe price cut in April 2010 and significant changes in the pricing policy of long-listed drugs. While still early, these developments indicate a difficult path for generic companies in particular and all companies with high long-listed drug exposure in general. This calls for a fresh look at the DPJ-led government: will they continue…

Throughout history the unpredictability of the Flu Virus has offered challenges and new opportunities to providers of therapeutic and prophylactic antiviral treatment options. While opportunities during the Spanish Flu of 1918 pandemic were not quantifiable, the impact from the more recent Bird Flu and SARS occurrences can be extrapolated to assess the investment opportunity surrounding the Swine (H1N1) flu pandemic. Tamiflu sales in 2005-2007 amounted to ~$1.7b and we expect 2009-2010 sales to match or exceed this. One notable difference between Bird…

Enthusiasm for the host of clinical data released at the ongoing American Diabetes Association (ADA, June 5-9) meeting has simmered down as the FDA’s long-term safety concerns will weigh heavily on whether these drugs will actually make it to market. New data on weekly versions of GLP-1’s, Phase II data from Roche’s aleglitazar, and data for a novel class of drugs that aim to treat diabetes by blocking IL-1β were all important developments in the fight against diabetes, but they are unlikely…

The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) meeting is one of the biggest annual events in the healthcare industry.  This weekend over 30,000 oncologists, educators, industry leaders and investors will gather in balmy Orlando, Florida to review the latest developments in cancer treatment. Our team of analysts conducted a review of the data abstracts to determine their impact on a range of Biotech and Pharma stocks.  Over the next four days we will see full data from a number of…

Hepatitis C is a blood-borne infection caused by the Hepatitis C virus (HCV), which targets the liver cells. The most important sequel of chronic HCV infection is progressive liver fibrosis that leads to cirrhosis, end stage liver disease (ESLD), and hepatic cellular carcinoma. An estimated 270m - 300m people worldwide are infected with HCV and close to four million of them are in the US. Unlike chronic Hepatitis B and HIV, HCV can be cured although its heterogeneous mutation capability…

A new year fosters hope and optimism. In 2009, all Pharma companies, Investors and Regulatory authorities will need wisdom and prudence to bring in cheer. With this backdrop, we have taken a fresh approach in the presentation of our annual Global Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Outlook (TM) 2009. After defining the key determinants of growth within each sector, we recommend an Overweight position in Rising Stars (RS, unprofitable companies). RISING STARS Our rationale for recommending that investors be Overweight in the RS sector (as per Recommended Portfolio…

The Global Pharma universe today has low valuation multiples, definitive five-year free cash flows and a strong dividend yield which hedges the downside, while dwindling R&D productivity and an uncertain pricing environment rules out any major upside for this universe. Although fundamental growth drivers like higher prevalence of chronic illnesses and an aging population remain intact, in this challenging environment, where is Global Pharma headed? Pricing Rationalization is Just a Matter of Time The US, which to date has been…

Hereditary AngioEdema (HAE) is a rare, severely debilitating, and potentially life-threatening genetic disease characterized by spontaneous and recurring attacks of edema (swelling) in various parts of the body. While abdominal HAE attacks, caused by the swelling of the intestinal wall, can lead to severe pain, attacks affecting the hands, face, throat, and feet can be fatal. Patients suffer an average of 12 attacks per year, each enduring about two to five days if left untreated. Although approximately 10,000 patients in the…

A new ‘layer’ of long-awaited Japanese healthcare reforms were enacted as of April 2008. They are aimed at increasing the use of generic drugs to 12% by 2010 (from 2007 level of 5.2% by value). Japan currently lags far behind other regulated markets in terms of generic use: 16.8% in Japan versus 54% in USA, 52% in UK, and 55% in Germany, by volume. Key factors that contribute to poor generic uptake in Japan are: 1) low margins received by…